Insights from Q1 2026 FreightWaves Shipper Rate Report

We just read FreightWaves’ Q1 Shipper Rate Report – Our takeaways and survey insights

FreightWaves just dropped their Q1 2026 Shipper Rate Report, sponsored by Trimble, and it’s a page-turner for anyone trying to figure out why their routing guides suddenly feel so tight.

After the last three years of a soft market where capacity was everywhere, this report is a wake-up call. We spent some time diving into the data, and there were two specific things we think every shipper needs to have on their radar right now.

Read the complete report now. Or, check out our insights below.

The "10% threshold" has been shattered

We’ve all been used to tender rejection rates sitting in that comfortable 5% zone, but those days are officially in the rearview. The report shows that as of early February, rejection rates have surged to over 13%.

Why does that matter? The report points out that current market tightness is actually unprecedented for this time of year in the post-COVID era. If you’re feeling like you’re playing more "fireman" than "transportation manager" lately, this is exactly why.

The $65 billion refund surge is coming

Tax refunds in 2026 are projected to be 18% higher than last year; a potential extra $65 billion hitting consumer pockets between February and April.

Historically, a huge chunk of that money goes straight into freight-heavy categories like electronics and furniture. The report warns that this surge is going to hit the market at the exact moment capacity is already struggling. A spike in demand will meet a capacity crunch, and it’s a trend you’ll want to get ahead of before your March budget takes a hit.

Why you should give it a read

Beyond the big headlines, the report gets into some really practical stuff – like why intermodal is currently acting as a release valve with a 20-30% cost advantage, and how this year’s La Niña weather patterns are expected to impact the Midwest and Northwest lanes.

If you’re looking to move from a reactive philosophy to an analysis-focused 2026 strategy, this report is for you. It’s packed with the kind of knowledge and data-backed foresight that helps you stay ahead of the curve rather than just reacting to it.

Check out the full report here to see the regional breakdowns and the full 2026 forecast.