FreightWaves Q1 2026 Carrier Rate Report

We just finished digging through the FreightWaves’ Q1 Carrier Rate Report, produced in partnership with Trimble,  and if you’re an asset-based carrier, the report’s data holds some welcome surprises.

While the FreightWaves Q1 2026 Shipper Rate Report was focused in large part about tightening budgets, this carrier-focused report reveals that businesses are finally seeing their leverage return. After a few years of holding the line, the sentiment among the 170+ carriers surveyed is the most bullish we've seen since early 2022. 

Read the complete report here. Or, check out the highlights that caught our eye below.

Rejections are rising (Even without the volume)

Usually, tender rejections only go up when the phones are ringing off the hook. But Q4 2025 gave us a weird plot twist: volumes were soft yet rejections outperformed 2024 levels.

By early February, the national rejection rate topped 14%. The report suggests this isn't just busy season noise – it’s the result of structural capacity attrition. Regulatory crackdowns on ELD compliance and fraud are finally thinning the herd, leaving the remaining carriers with more seats at the table.

Carriers are seeing disciplined growth

For the first time in a long time, the profitability sentiment is in the green. Carriers aren't just surviving; they’re planning for a net +23% volume improvement through the rest of Q1.

But here’s the cool part: nobody is rushing out to over-leverage themselves. Fleet growth is looking "measured" (mostly in the 1%–20% range). It’s a sophisticated approach; using technology to do more with less iron rather than just flooding the market with new trucks and hoping for the best.

The impact of weather on capacity

The report makes a great point about the recent winter storms and the overall way that weather events can influence carrier business operations. In a loose market, a blizzard is just a delay. In a tight market, but in recent times, a blizzard has functioned as a catalyst. We saw spot rates jump nearly 20 cents in affected weeks because there’s no longer a massive capacity cushion to absorb the shock.

Why this matters for you

If you’ve been waiting for a sign that the cycle is turning, this report is a loud and clear alert. Carriers are moving from a defensive crouch into a position of disciplined opportunism.